The national vacancy rate increased to a record 13.5% in the third quarter of this year, up from 9.4% at the end of 2019.
BX Dry Powder
Blackstone announced the final close on $2.6 billion for its latest real estate secondaries fund, Strategic Partners Real Estate VIII L.P.
Home Prices
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, rose 3.9% from a year earlier in September, compared with a 2.5% annual increase the prior month. The September level was the highest since the index began in 1987. Home sales have slumped from a year ago because higher mortgage rates have pushed buyers out of the market. But the decline in demand isn’t causing prices to fall, because the inventory of homes on the market is unusually low.
BX Europe
Blackstone head Steve Schwarzman plans to spend billions buying up dorms, warehouses, and data centers across Europe.
Interest Rate Expectations
Interest-rate futures indicated last week a roughly 60% chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-of-a-percentage point by its May 2024 policy meeting, up from 29% at the end of October.
Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s sentiment index, based on a long-running survey of households, remains far below prepandemic levels and lately has been near levels experienced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
CHH WH
Another bid by Choice Hotels to strike a deal with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts has fallen flat. After months of on-and-off talks for a deal that would unite two of the biggest budget hotel owners in the country, Wyndham’s board received a letter from Choice to restart negotiations and strike a deal with Wyndham before the end of the year. Choice hasn’t boosted its cash-and-stock offer, currently worth $86 a share. That is down from $90 given a decline in Choice shares since the takeover offer was made in October. Wyndham views the offer as too low and worries it would saddle the combined company with too much debt.
CMBS Repayments
In the first nine months of 2019, 88% of CMBS office loans were paid off when they matured. As interest rates and vacancies rose, that share dropped to 71% in the first nine months of 2022 and to just 31.2% this year.
US Debt
The U.S. Treasury has issued a net $2 trillion in new debt this year, a record when excluding the pandemic borrowing spree of 2020.
Private Credit
About 58% of the total capital deployed by private credit managers globally is estimated to come from firms that lend more than $10 billion per year.