The latest Household Debt and Credit Report showed a $197 billion increase in total household debt during Q3, reaching a record $18.59 trillion. Mortgage debt, which represents the bulk of household debt, grew by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion. Non-housing debt also increased with credit card balances rising by $24 billion from the previous quarter to $1.23 trillion and student loan balances increasing by $15 billion to $1.65 trillion.
Q3 GDP
Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 4.3% annual rate for the July through September quarter. It was the highest growth rate in two years, and reflected robust spending by consumers on services like health care as well as spending on vehicles. Growth picked up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, and beat the 3.2% forecast.
Lock-in Effect
Nearly 30 million households, or 54% of primary mortgage-holders, have mortgage rates at or below 4%. They were able to buy homes or refinance their mortgages when rates fell to 3% or lower in 2020 and 2021.
Workforce
The number of people working part time who wanted to work more leapt to 5.5 million in November, and is now up 23% from a year earlier. Those unemployed for more than half a year rose to 1.9 million from 1.8 million in September and 1.65 million a year earlier.
Wealthy Renters
Affluent renters who may spend $20,000 or more a month on a luxury single-family home or apartment are increasingly customizing their new places—replacing lighting, adding home-office space or just painting and adding wallpaper, all in an effort to live in a space, albeit temporarily, that fits their design aesthetic and lifestyle. Many landlords are not only allowing these renovations, they’re actually encouraging them.
College-educated Workers
The unemployment rate for college-educated workers who are 25 or older increased to 2.9% from 2.5% a year earlier and college-educated workers’ perceived probability of job loss in the next year rose to 15% from 11% three years ago.
Twin Cities Apartments
St. Paul’s strict 3% rent-control ordinance led to a 79% drop in apartment-building permits and an at least 6% decline in property values. Meanwhile, Minneapolis, without rent control, saw apartment permits rise nearly fourfold in early 2022 from the year before.
IPO Scams
The SEC suspended trading in 12 emerging growth companies’ stocks since late September, exceeding suspensions from the previous four years combined. All 12 suspended companies are Asia-based emerging growth companies that went public on Nasdaq with the critical link: All 12 are emerging growth companies under the JOBS Act. Though the acronym stands for “Jumpstart Our Business Startups,” these aren’t American companies. It is highly doubtful any of them could have gone public on U.S. exchanges without the JOBS Act and the regulatory relief afforded by their EGC status.
Luxury Residential
Home sellers are seeing a demand for fully furnished luxury real estate. While buyers with deep pockets and busy lives have long sought the simplicity of a turnkey home—one that’s move-in ready, requiring little to no additional work—more buyers today are looking for homes that are move-in ready and fully outfitted, down to the last household item.
Fed Cut Decision
The decision drew three dissents—two from officials who opposed any cut and one who wanted a larger reduction. The formal vote understated the resistance. Four other officials registered a quieter objection in the Fed’s quarterly projections: They wrote down a higher interest rate for 2025 than the one the committee approved—a signal they wouldn’t have cut. Together with the dissenters, that is roughly a third of the policymakers who attend Fed meetings.